Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. Youre not getting anybody perfect. He predicts that many Trump voters will start to waver in the weeks leading up to the election and will end up not voting. The Republican has been a big supporter of water quality on Lake Erie, and were looking to get another candidate that sees that as a priority.. Im kind of leaning toward being an independent. Charlotte Cuthbertson is a senior reporter with The Epoch Times who primarily covers border security and the opioid crisis. However, the political viewpoints of its residents are mixed as they have become more wary and leery of the government. It is as if the devastating rebuttals by Tufte in Data Analysis for Politics and Policy or the equally devastating review of the evidence in David A. Hopkins 2017 book Red Fighting Blue never happened. Well just have to wait and see who will go into the building. Bernard Grofman University of California, Irvine He voted for Trump in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections and said hed vote for him again if he were the Republican nominee. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. We need to finish putting up the wall that Trump started. For example, across seven elections, we would expect to see 28 bellwether counties. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. But, just within the last year, the price of everything has gone up. Until we have term limits for politicians, this country doesnt have a prayer.. While Zulch said he voted for Trump in both presidential elections, he says hell have to wait and see who runs before saying who he would vote for in 2024. Not as large or as well-known as its more eastern cousin, Luzerne County, where much of the election attention has been focused, Elk County is just as accurate in predicting who will be the next commander in chief. What you need to know, summarized in one email. Vigo County voters supported Trump by a 15 percent margin in 2016. Articles after the 2020 election examining the predictive power of previous bellwethers are found in other sources, including the Wall Street Journal and the Epoch Times. Tisdell wanted to find out for himself, so he began to do his own research, reading mainstream news on both sides, as well as reports by independent citizen journalists. Things happen for a reason, and its out of our control until things change, Brendon told The Epoch Times. He isnt so sure about Biden. In addition to seeing a 25 percent increase in fuel costs in the past year, the company has resorted to buying used trucks instead of new ones when it needs them. Logistically, its a disaster. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. Epoch Times: "Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020" Find UFOs, The Apocalypse, New World Order, Political Analysis, Alternative Health, Armageddon, Conspiracies, Prophecies, Spirituality, Home Schooling, Home Mortgages and more, in: Rumor Mill News Reading Room, Current Archive Overall, the county is in good shape, and has a lot going for it.. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the nineteen counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. Nothing is free, Hawker said. I think they [the current administration] are trying to push us into buying electric cars. Hes happy about the passage of the First Step Act, criminal justice reform that Trump signed into law in 2018, which includes decreased sentences for some drug crimes, and also makes it easier to get out of prison early for good behavior. We have loads that sometimes dont cover the fuel costs., During the COVID pandemic, nobody was on the roads. I vote for whoever I think is going to do the best job, Sam added. Its gone, Jacobs said. He likes that Trump upholds law and order amid the social unrest. I think we needed somebody like him.. Fifteen percent is a very large gap to close, he said. Delaware's Kent County last missed in 1992. Comparing the most recent elections (2000-2020) to those in earlier periods (1960-1980), we find a striking decline in the proportion of bellwether counties, i.e., those with correct prediction in past elections. Of Wood Countys 92,119 registered voters, 9,479 of them are Democrats, 8,315 are Republicans, and 74,240 are independents, according to numbers from the Board of Elections. Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. That was a blow to the area, Miller said about Peloton ending its plans for a $400 million project. The Democrats who are vying for that partys nomination are Morgan Harper, Traci Johnson, and Tim Ryan, who has been serving in Congress for the past 2o years, or 10 consecutive terms. Whether you respect the man or not, he is still the president of the United States and you should respect that.. Moreover, once we allow for bellwethers to have less than perfect records of success, the expected numbers of bellwethers increases much more rapidly than most (including us) would expect. He also intends to vote in personto ensure his vote is counted that day, although he used a mail-in ballot to vote in the primary. And its never going to come back.. Edie Martin is struggling to get her diner back in the black after being closed for almost three months over the pandemic. Swept up in unproven voter fraud claims, the Shasta County Board of Supervisors has upended the county's election process, canceling its contract with . Theyre scared. 2020: Trump - 59.1%, Biden - 38.5. In 2016, Pennsylvania itself was wrenched out of its 24-year run as a Democratic sure bet when Donald Trump cleared just over 44,000 more votes than Hillary Clinton and took the states prized 20 electoral votes. Terry Titchner, 70, said hes voting for Biden because he doesnt trust Trump. We need jobs up here, good-paying full-time jobs, she added. Epoch Times, Gateway Pundit, and EveryLegalVote.com show a different electoral vote count for two reasons: They exclude states with pending litigation or recounts, subtracting votes from. But, he said, most mainstream politicians dont represent rural America, and issues such as boys that identify as girls and then compete in girls high school sports just smack of stupid., The economy and taxes are important issues to him, but the question he asks of the candidate is, Does this person care about my family?. We have to figure out a way to control fuel prices. He won nineteen-to-twenty bellwether counties. The researchers also mapped all American counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scorethat is their record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. This includes personalizing content and advertising. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. One older woman with a Biden sign outside her home simply said, Im voting for Biden, and thats all Ive got to say.. I kind of keep in my bubble. In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. In a 2020 article, Daniel Zimny-Schmitt and Michael Harris look for bellwether counties in the period 1980-2016 and identify nineteen such. My opinion is thats just what it is, Shepherd said of COVID-19. Just like a hurricane, you can try to prepare for it the best you can, but you never know what kind of damage it is going to cause. Former President Trump and his supporters continue to loudly assert that he really won the 2020 election even though all the alleged direct evidence of fraud has not passed the sniff test of local courts, including those with Republican judges. Right now, its horrible. Our model also links this decline to increases in polarization. Hes organizing a Second Amendment rally in Ridgway for Oct. 17 to make sure gun rights are fresh in peoples minds when they head to the ballot box. I trust the system implicitly, he said. Unfortunately, however, neither of the reasons for why we might think that previous bellwethers will continue to be bellwethers is valid. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. But not only are bellwethers not really predictors of future success, the likelihood of finding long streaks of prior predictive success has gone down. He won Ohio by eight, Iowa by eight. Its just too depressing, too much bad and evil going on in the world, Shepherd told The Epoch Times. Richard Zulch, an Army veteran who served in Vietnam as a combat engineer from 1969 through 1971 and is the quartermaster for Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 4811 in Bowling Green, said he has been able to see the political landscape from both sides of the fence. The issues most important to Jacobs are immigration, the health care system, and socialism. She only voted once, at the urging of her husband, when they got married about 30 years ago. I think it worked out without me.. More importantly, someone needs to be in office who understands that running the country is like running a business, said Hawker, who worked as a staff engineer for Bendix Braking Systems in Elyria for 52 years. There isnt anything I can do to change it or to make it better by voting.. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. Its just stupid, she said. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Theres too much mishandling, she said. We are a rural county here, Hill told The Epoch Times. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. Though Myers leans toward Trump, he hasnt made up his mind to vote for him yet; he didnt vote for Trump in 2016. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. In Terre Haute, 52-year-old Scott Hamilton said the main issue for him in this election is how divided the nation is; he said Trump is mostly to blame. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. They take pride in going to work, owning their home, having that simple life. He doesnt seem like a really bad guy. Missouri fits this definition, as do six counties that have matched the national vote. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). The City Center festival continued with Kyiv City Ballet, a Christopher Wheeldon duet and a daring work for Dayton Contemporary Dance Company. Jacobs, 58, a gift store manager in Ridgway, said she voted for Obama but didnt follow politics closely at the time. In an October 7, 2020, essay in the New York Times, David Wasserman looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties for evidence that Donald Trump is in serious trouble. Every time you pass a law, the government becomes more oppressive. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck and neck. When Republican Dr. Ted Bowlus defeated Democrat Joel Kuhlman in the 2016 election, it completed a single-party commission. Mainstream polls are suggesting a Pennsylvania win for Biden, but, if the 2016 polls were anything to go by, theyre about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. By registering for the newsletter, you agree to the, New Crew From US, Russia, and UAE Arrives at Space Station, LIVE NOW: Biden Awards Medal of Honor to Retired Army Col. Paris Davis, We Have to Pay Our Sins: Lawmakers Must Negotiate Way Out of US Debt Crisis: Sen. Manchin, Suspect Charged After Chicago Officer Dies After Shootout, Nevada Approves $330 Million in Tesla Tax Abatements Over Gigafactory Expansion. Under a changed political landscape in Ottawa County, Commissioner Mark Coppeler, a Republican, also looked at the bigger picture. He considers Trump pro-life. Both Jacobs and her husband switched to Republican and Ive never looked back, she said. bellwether counties epoch timesjury duty summons date vs reporting date Get Business Credit and Financing To Grow Your Business!!! I think a lot of us are fighting against socialism. She said she almost never votes, but this year decided to vote for President Donald Trump. Racine County, WI might be the single best bellwether: if it called all the elections with missing data elections correctly, it would have 86% correct. Jim Hoft. About The Author. In both of the missteps, the residents wrongly picked the losing Democrat: Williams Jennings Bryan over President William Taft in 1908 and Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Westmoreland is the only one in the South; Clallam is the only county on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. Fitch, who grew up in foster homes and went on to put himself through college, has owned and run the Summit Fireside Lodge and Grill for 32 years. That doesnt make sense to me, Tisdell said. I dont think he has done that bad of a job. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout, nationally, according to census data. Second, when we examine a short string of elections, we do indeed, find that some counties go with the winner in all (or virtually all the elections). Political scientists have a term for counties or states that anticipate how the rest of the country will votebellwethers. For much of the last decade, historically Republican suburban areas in Franklin, Ohio,. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. The median household annual income is approximately, In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. Only 1 of 17 bellwether counties went for Biden this year! A 75-year-old retiree who owned a transportation and logistics business didnt want to be named and told The Epoch Times hes been skeptical of government since he was 30. Thus it would appear that bellwether. Her husband, a groundskeeper at an Army Reserve base, comes from a strongly Democratic family. The price of gas at the Marathon gas station in Port Clinton was $3.39 a gallon on Feb. 22 whenDave Beggs, anarmy veteran and retired City of Port Clinton heavy equipment operator, pulled in. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 33 percent nationally. In the northwest corner of Ohio sits a county with an enviable bellwether reputationonly twice over the past 60 years voting against the presidential winner. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a study of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. We live in an evenly divided nation, and the past five presidential elections demonstrate that well with their extremely close outcomes, Bergbower, an associate professor at Indiana State University, said in an email to The Epoch Times. There are three counties that voted with the eventual winner for each of the past 10 elections,. State residents are awaiting a ruling from the Ohio Supreme Court about whether it will approve the newly proposed congressional map that the Ohio Redistricting Commission submitted to the high court earlier this month. President Trump won every single bellwether county, except Clallam County in Washington. The registered Republican voters (8,455) outnumber the registered Democrats (6,731) in Ottawa County. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the 19 counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. Jeff Myers, a lifelong Vigo County resident in Riley, on the other hand, wont let the big events of the day, such as riots and the pandemic, determine his vote. They see it as just a show, but I think he is for America. bellwether. Since picking the winning candidate in Democrat Lyndon Baines Johnson in 1964, it has deviated from the winner only twice. The state as a whole is going more Republican, Wood County Board of Elections Director Julie Baumgardner told The Epoch Times. Trump is a person who just couldnt accept defeat, Ellithorpe said. As a father, I would be curious about what my kids are doing.. Figure 1 Counties expected to have unbroken or near unbroken string of correct matches with national election outcome if each county has a 50 percent chance of voting for the winner. I look at the picture of what hes doing for my country.. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. I know a lot of people dont like him, because of his tweets and things that he says, and I kind of agree with that. Petr Svab is a reporter covering New York. Jacobs said she absolutely intends to vote in person on Nov. 3. I dont watch TV. Residents who were asked about any candidate choices tended to be true to their reputation as a bellwether county, with more of a wait-and-see type of attitude of seeing whos going to step up as a presidential candidate in 2024. At least Biden is honest, he said. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. Just off Interstate 75 at the Pemberville/Bowling Green exit, is Frickers, a popular eatery and gathering place for people of all ages, whereChris Chamberlin ofBowling Green works as the restaurants manager. These 10 bellwether counties five in Sun Belt battlegrounds, five in the Frost Belt (loosely defined to include Iowa) could point us toward each state's winner. We have become so divided. He was working on his neighbors lawn when he paused to talk to The Epoch Times. Of the 19 bellwether counties that have consistently voted for the presidential winner since 1980, all but one chose Trump, the Journal found, PJ Media reported. Jim Hoft is the founder and editor of The Gateway Pundit, one of the top conservative news outlets in America. Teresa Shepherd, a middle-aged woman living in Riley, just southeast of Terre Haute, has never cared much about voting. People are so worked up about it all the time, stressed out. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. If he does not answer that issue clearly, I will not vote for him.. He received his bachelors degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Toledo and a Masters degree in electrical engineering from Northwestern in Illinois. But as for America, I feel he would do the best job.. Donald Trump 16 out of 39 counties which are considered significant bellwethers. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. A diverse group of residents, many were surprised to wake up the morning of Nov. 4, 2020, to see that Joe Biden overtook Trumps leads in numerous battleground states from the night beforesuch as in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Farming also is a big part of Wood County's make up in northwest Ohio. Because of the current situation, I have to look at our finances and say, Can I get this new truck, can I hire these two to three new employees, can we go into this new line of business? Bernard Grofman is Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Jack W. Peltason Chair of Democracy Studies at the University of California, Irvine. We shouldnt be fighting among each other here. Shortened URL for this post:https://bit.ly/3JzjZ3j. The voter shift is happening statewide, and despite Democrats having 750,000 more registered voters, Republicans have gained 75,000 since 2016, while Democrats have lost 91,000. Ron DeSantis, Miller said he likes Gov. But Myers doesnt think Biden is respectful to Trump either. We can place an order and immediately get an email back of what they dont have. What are they going to do about gun rights? he said. I think its very political right now, honestly. Rarely are we really stuck with people in leadership that are fairly moderate. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). Since its founding in 1853 it has only got 13 out of the 37 extant elections right. To find out more about cookies and change your preferences, visit our, looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties, The Russia-Ukraine War: a challenge to international order, Global Energy Politics and Cost of Living Crisis, The New Normal: a dual track approach to health strategy and policy, Inside the Deal: how the EU got Brexit done. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. Hamilton had already cast his vote for Biden on the first day of early voting. They run the gamut from. Fitch said almost half of the 5,000-strong Second Amendment group in Elk county are Democrats. She said her husband will vote for Trump, too. Bremer County, Iowa They also found that high scoring counties do exhibit a geographic trend. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughter's house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20,. SACRAMENTO . Since then, he has been doing odd jobs, such as cutting grass or trimming trees for neighbors. He isnt happy that Biden called Trump names during the first debate. Hes concerned a Biden administration would mean an end to fracking, higher gas prices, and utility bill hikes. He worked for a tree service company for some years, but was laid off again. Even wearing a mask, youre still not certain. We need to make sure we keep our gun rights.. The insulting back and forth really bothers me about any candidate, Myers said. Those dollars wont be there, because people will be buying gas. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. Given the global context of Russias invasion of Ukraine, they believe higher gas prices and inflation is coming, and theyre not happy about it. Were still there right now as a bellwether county, but we dont know whether well keep it up.. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. One major planned project in Wood County pulled outPeloton, an exercise bike and interactive exercise equipment manufacturer. He likes how the Democratic Party helps lower-income people. If riots break out in our area and we dont have firearms, how are we going to protect our family and ourselves?. Republican Gov.